DTN Closing Cotton            05/04 13:37

   Cotton Prices Slip on Weekend Rains, Overbought Condition

   The cotton market saw a small retreat today as scattered weekend rains, plus 
an overbought condition took prices down. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market saw a small retreat today as scattered weekend rains, plus 
an overbought condition took prices down. Additionally, the U.S. dollar was up, 
as all indications point to renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. The 
energy complex posted strong gains today, further "sapping" money away from the 
fiber market.

   Today at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will report on the planting progress of the U.S. 
crop. Last week's data showed that 16% of the planted domestic area was 
complete. The five-year average for this time of the season is 13% complete.

   Spot May contract is in delivery. Today there were zero notices issued. Thus 
far, 178 notices have been issued. May's delivery period runs through May 6.

   President Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on May 14 in Beijing to discuss 
trade and geo-political topics. China wants the assurance of uninterrupted 
energy supplies, while the U.S. is looking to increase agricultural exports.

   Last week's U.S. Drought Monitor showed no improvement last week, with 
approximately 98% of U.S. cotton production still experiencing drought as of 
April 28. A year ago, about 21% was in drought. However, recent weekend rains 
may have abated the situation somewhat.

   Crude oil prices are elevated today as Iran claims to hit a U.S. Navy ship 
in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran launched some missiles against the 
UAE.

   The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 9-13) calls for slightly above-normal 
temperatures for west Texas, and normal for the rest of the U.S. Cotton Belt. 
Rain wise, slightly above-normal chances exist for the length of the Belt.

   For Monday, July closed at 82.92 cents, down 127 points; December 2026 
closed at 83.68 cents, minus 88 points; and March 2027 finished at 84.56 cents, 
70 points higher. Monday's estimated volume was 50,775 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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