DTN Closing Cotton            01/13 13:35

   Cotton Stabilizes Sideways Tuesday

   The cotton market stayed resiliently sideways Tuesday, in the face of the 
Chicago grains tapping on their bearish brakes. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market stayed resiliently sideways Tuesday, in the face of the 
Chicago grains tapping on their bearish brakes. Monday saw record corn 
production and carryout estimates, among other negative nuances, in the grain 
and oilseed complex. Their negativity collectively neutralized cotton's better 
supply-demand numbers.

   Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% 
year-on-year in December, falling short of analysts' expectations of 0.3% and 
2.7%, respectively. Nonetheless, President Trump reiterated his push to cut 
interest rates "meaningfully" after the inflation data. However, now the Fed is 
expected to keep rates steady at its January 27-28 meeting.

   This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. Last week 
sales amounted to 98,000 bales for the current crop, well below the 134,000 
sold in the previous week. The report will be out at 8:30 a.m. EST. Thus far, 
cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 59% of the USDA forecast versus a 
five-year average of 76% for this point in the marketing year. Last week's 
shipments totaled 154,036 bales, up from 140,723 the prior week.

   On Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. Last 
Friday's numbers showed managed-money funds had net-bought some 1,300 
positions, reducing their net-carry to 47,700 contracts.

   For Tuesday, March 2026 went out at 64.88 cents, down 3 points; July was 
67.86 cents, unchanged; and December 2026, closed at 69.29 cents, 2 points 
higher. Tuesday's estimated volume was 64,043 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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