DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/05 07:45

   Cotton Builds On Recovery

   Cotton edges higher as export sales jump ahead of key data.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Thursday, as it "technically reaches" 
higher after its triple-digit session of Wednesday. Wednesday's volume was 
fairly stout, as traders know that the 2026 Harvest is approaching two-thirds 
complete. 

   USDA just issued its weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 277,500 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 28 
percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior four-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (200,500 RB, including decreases of 4,400 RB), 
Pakistan (30,700 RB), Turkey (18,300 RB, including decreases of 5,700 RB), Peru 
(7,700 RB), and India (5,100 RB, including decreases of 600 RB), were offset by 
reductions for Mexico (3,100 RB). Exports of 137,800 RB--a marketing-year 
low--were down 14 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 
four-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (43,500 RB), 
Mexico (20,600 RB), Pakistan (15,900 RB), Bangladesh (13,900 RB), and India 
(8,100 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 6,400 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for 
India (2,500 RB, including 300 RB switched from Italy), Bangladesh (2,300 RB), 
Peru (1,400 RB), Japan (300 RB), and Indonesia (200 RB), were offset by 
reductions for Italy (400 RB). Exports of 7,100 RB were up noticeably from the 
previous week and up 18 percent from the prior four-week average. The 
destinations were primarily to Bangladesh (2,200 RB), India (2,100 RB), Vietnam 
(1,500 RB), China (800 RB), and Thailand (500 RB).   

   Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST, traders will see a new monthly jobs report. Last 
month's report showed 65,000 new non-farm jobs were added to the economy. This 
month's guess is 29,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

   Also, on Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will update 
its Commitment of Traders (COT) data. Last week saw the managed funds sell 
10,000-plus positions, reducing their net-long carry of 56,190 contracts.

   Crude Oil is up Thursday as traders weigh-out the future course of the 
U.S./Israeli war with Iran given the heavy midterm losses suffered by the 
Republicans.  As it stands, the situation in the Middle East is still 
unresolved and energy traders remain on edge. 

   For Thursday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 76.40 cents and 
76.00 cents, with resistance around 79.25 cents and 80.00 cents. This morning's 
estimated volume is 20,180 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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