DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/18 07:14

   Cotton Squeezes New High 

   The overnight cotton market posted a new high for the move, albeit by just a 
handful of points. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The overnight cotton market posted a new high for the move, albeit by just a 
handful of points. Traders were encouraged by the worsening crop condition 
data, the recent strength of the Chinese State Reserve auctions, and the 
weakened U.S. dollar.

   USDA's latest condition data shows the 2026 U.S. crop condition at 38% good 
to excellent, down from 40 percentage points from the previous week. Last year 
at this time that crop was 55% good to excellent. The five-year average for 
this date is 47% good to excellent. Specifically, Texas was rated 21% good to 
excellent, down from 24 points from last week; 48% a year ago and the five-year 
average of 34%. The report also showed 14% of the U.S. cotton crop had bolls 
open, which was in line with the five-year average for this date.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 23-27) shows much-above normal 
temperatures in the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, West Texas and into the lower 
Delta have below-normal chances. The Southeast is forecast to see only normal 
opportunities.

   The U.S. dollar is a touch higher Tuesday, but nonetheless remains at a 
multi-month low. Traders have been reducing their bets on rate hikes, given 
the recent soft economic numbers and the ongoing U.S./Iran War. Today will see 
the release of the minutes of the central bank's last meeting.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 84.00 cents and 83.10 cents, 
with resistance around 86.00 cents and 86.50 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 8,733 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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