DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/06 07:55

   Cotton Plays Harvest Defense 

   Cotton futures slip as traders weigh jobs report, COT data, USDA outlook

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat lower Friday as traders continue to assess 
election fallout, the U.S./Iran Conflict, and monthly employment data. Coming 
into Friday's session, the market is net positive a mere 50 points on the week. 

   Friday's jobs report showed a whopping 165,000 new non-farm jobs were added 
to the economy. Obviously, Friday's report was way higher than the estimate 
calling for 65,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Friday's 
unemployment number was 4.1%. 

   The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will update its Commitments 
of Traders report (COT) data. Last week saw the managed funds sell 10,000-plus 
positions, reducing their net-long carry of 56,190 contracts. 

   This Monday, USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report. Last week's 
numbers revealed that 63% of the national crop had been harvested. The 
four-year average is 54%. Texas was 61% harvested versus her five-year average 
of 46% complete. 

   Next Tuesday at 12 p.m. EST, USDA will also issue its monthly supply-demand 
updates. Last month, the agency increased U.S. production to 13.44 million 
bales. 

   The six-to-ten-day forecast (Nov. 11-15) shows above-normal temperatures for 
the Delta and Texas, while the Southeast will experience normal readings. 
Rain-wise, Texas appears to have slightly above normal odds, while the Delta 
and the Southeast show normal to below-normal chances.

   For Friday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 77.85 cents and 
77.05 cents, with resistance around 79.25 cents and 80.00 cents. This morning's 
estimated volume is 11,738 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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