DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/18 07:39

   Cotton Lower as Traders Eye Arthur 

   After spiking some 200 points higher Wednesday, traders are watching and 
reassessing the potential impact of Tropical Storm Arthur. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After spiking some 200 points higher Wednesday, traders are watching and 
reassessing the potential impact of Tropical Storm Arthur. Although the 
southern cotton crop is in an early and vulnerable state, it's not like cotton 
bolls are fully open. Additionally, traders want to see Thursday's export 
sales, assess the new central bank chairman's style of leadership, and are 
squaring positions for a long, three-day holiday weekend.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following data:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 177,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 15 percent 
from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for Pakistan (76,600 RB, including decreases of 2,100 RB), 
India (39,600 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from Pakistan), Vietnam (21,000 
RB, including 1,400 RB switched from South Korea, 500 RB switched from Japan, 
and decreases of 1,500 RB), China (11,400 RB, including decreases of 300 RB), 
and Taiwan (7,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Honduras (2,000 RB), South 
Korea (1,400 RB), and Japan (1,000 RB). Net sales of 188,400 RB for 2026/2027 
were primarily for Vietnam (65,600 RB), Pakistan (39,600 RB), Indonesia (22,500 
RB), Malaysia (21,100 RB), and Nicaragua (15,000 RB). Exports of 251,000 RB 
were down 16 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior four 
week average. The destinations were primarily to  Vietnam (66,300 RB), Pakistan 
(33,100 RB), Turkey (28,000 RB), Bangladesh (24,500 RB), and China (19,800 RB). 
Net sales of Pima totaling 5,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 28 percent from the 
previous week and 14 percent from the prior four-week average.  Increases were 
primarily for Costa Rica (3,500 RB), Thailand (400 RB), Pakistan (400 RB), 
Turkey (400 RB), and Peru (400 RB). Exports of 13,200 RB were down 43 percent 
from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior four-week average.  The 
destinations were primarily to India (6,900 RB), Vietnam (2,300 RB), China 
(1,800 RB), Peru (1,300 RB), and Thailand (400 RB)."

   The market will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth observance. The ICE 
futures will reopen the following Sunday night at 9 p.m. EDT, but likely 
certain reports  will be pushed back a day.

   Crude oil is lower Thursday after President Donald Trump signed a deal with 
his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian to end the war in the Middle East. 
Also, a report from the International Energy Agency indicated there can easily 
be a supply glut of oil next year. However, somewhat clouding the situation, 
Trump also told reporters he could resume attacks on Iran if Tehran failed to 
honor its commitments.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 78.60 cents and 78.05 cents, 
with resistance around 80.50 cents and 81.00 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 18,209 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.