DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          05/29 07:46

   Cotton a Tad Lower Friday

   After its small recovery Thursday, the cotton market has eased off a bit 
Friday morning. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its small recovery Thursday, the cotton market has eased off a bit 
Friday morning. Traders are waiting to see the delayed weekly export sales, the 
CFTC update, and what position-squaring there might be before the weekend.

   USDA just issued its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 153,600 RB for 2025/2026 were up 17 percent 
from the previous week and 32 percent of the four-week average.  Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (48,800 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from Indonesia, 
900 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 4,700 RB), Pakistan (41,300 
RB, including 400 RB switched from India and decreases of 3,300 RB), China 
(24,900 RB), Turkey (17,300 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and India 
(9,000 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (900 RB) and Nicaragua 
(400 RB). Net sales of 112,000 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Pakistan 
(68,300 RB), Mexico (26,100 RB), South Korea (8,800 RB), Turkey (7,000 RB), and 
Guatemala (1,400 RB). Exports of 317,700 RB were up 10 percent from the 
previous week, but down 2 percent from the four-week average. The destinations 
were primarily to Vietnam (101,600 RB), Pakistan (70,900 RB), Turkey (36,500 
RB), China (17,900 RB), and Indonesia (15,800 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 
2,800 RB for 2025/2026 were down 71 percent from the previous week and 79 
percent from the four-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (1,000 
RB), Thailand (500 RB), China (400 RB), Indonesia (300 RB), and Pakistan (200 
RB). Total net sales of 400 RB for 2026/2027 were for India. Exports of 7,500 
RB were down 25 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the 
four-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (3,200 RB), Peru 
(1,200 RB), China (1,200 RB), Pakistan (700 RB), and Vietnam (700 RB)."

   Also, Friday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT, CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders numbers. Last week's data showed managed-money funds had bought-in 
nearly 2,500 contracts, lifting their net-long carry to 62,000-plus positions. 
Friday's release will set the trading tone into the new month of June.

   Option expiration for the July contract is Friday, June 12, while the spot 
July contract commences delivery on June 24, running through July 9. 

   As the month of May concludes, we note recent economic news has been 
generally supportive. Some data showed GDP rising at a 1.6% annualized pace 
even though consumer spending softened. Still, inflation remains stubborn, 
running near 3.8% in April, which makes near-term interest rate cuts unlikely. 
Most analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through much 
of the year.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 78.25 cents and 77.85 cents, 
with resistance around 80.00 cents and 80.50 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 21,476 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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