DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/22 07:48

   Cotton Eases Off the Rally

   Cotton Prices Slip Despite Strong Export Sales Ahead of Fed, CFTC Reports.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After three consecutive higher closings, the cotton market is sliding lower 
Thursday. Traders remain concerned that the U.S.-Iran war continues to threaten 
energy supplies and shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. Other worries revolve 
around Russia-Ukraine peace efforts, persistent inflation, and ideas that the 
Federal Reserve will increase rates sometime this year. 

   USDA released its weekly exports-sales data with the following results: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 199,600 rolling bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 36 
percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior four-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (94,500 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), 
Bangladesh (34,200 RB), Turkey (33,700 RB), Pakistan (15,300 RB, including 
decreases of 100 RB), and India (7,800 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were 
offset by reductions for China (3,500 RB), Thailand (400 RB), Guatemala (400 
RB), and Malaysia (200 RB). Exports of 196,400 RB were up 40 percent from the 
previous week and 27 percent from the prior four-week average. 

   The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (78,900 RB), Pakistan (26,400 
RB), Turkey (18,600 RB), Bangladesh (13,900 RB), and India (11,500 RB). Net 
sales of Pima totaling 1,900 RB for 2026/2027 were down 81 percent from the 
previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases were 
reported for Vietnam (1,300 RB), Peru (500 RB), and Japan (100 RB). Exports of 
7,500 RB were down 28 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (6,400 RB), 
Bangladesh (300 RB), and Peru (300 RB).

   Then on Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of 
Traders (COT) numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net bought 1,862 
positions increasing their net-long carry to 65,699 contracts.

   Next week the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss and perhaps act on U.S. 
interest rates. Recent inflationary data has been running high, and the central 
bank may feel compelled to increase rates. However, most analysts feel that the 
central bank will wait until December to adjust rates.

   For Thursday close-in support for December Cotton stands at 80.00 cents and 
79.20 cents, with resistance around 82.25 cents and 83.00 cents. This morning's 
estimated volume is 11,670 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.