DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/13 07:19

   Cotton Fades Lower 

   Cotton slips as traders await USDA data, inflation reports.



Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After two positive, yet mediocre sessions, the cotton market is slightly 
down Tuesday morning. Traders are awaiting holiday-delayed information from 
USDA, as well as two key inflation reports. 

   At 4 p.m. Tuesday, USDA will issue its weekly crop progress data. Last week 
saw the national crop rated 33% good/excellent, while the harvest pace was 21%. 

   At 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, new CPI (consumer inflation) numbers will be issued. 
 Traders are expecting U.S. inflation to rise in Wednesday's CPI report), 
mainly because of higher energy prices, while underlying inflation should 
remain more moderate. Headline inflation y/o/y is looking between 3.6 to 3.7 
percent. The previous reading was 3.4%.  

   Thursday, new PPI (wholesale inflation) numbers will be released. Its 
numbers are expected to be elevated. Headline monthly PPI is estimated at 0.5% 
versus the previous 0.4%. 

   Weekly exports-sales will be released this Friday. Highlights from last 
week's report included net combined seasonal sales of 221,128 bales. That 
amount was below the previous 241,727 bales, but was higher than the four-week 
average. Cumulative sales for 2027/28 have reached 44% of the USDA forecast 
versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. 
Shipments totaled 161,588 bales, up from 149,507 the previous week.

   WTI Crude Oil is lower this morning as traders weighed prospects of 
additional Russian diesel entering the global markets. Additionally, there are 
concerns over the Saudi-Houthi conflict. President Trump has defended his 
administration's decision to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian diesel 
supplies, despite criticism from US lawmakers saying the move could undermine 
sanctions imposed over Moscow's war in Ukraine. 

   For Tuesday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 7910 and 7875, 
with resistance around 8200 and 8275. Tuesday morning's estimated volume is 
9,820 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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