DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          05/15 06:33

   Cotton Moving Lower and Lower

   The cotton market was materially lower Thursday and looks even worse Friday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was materially lower Thursday and looks even worse Friday. 
There is definitely a risk-off mindset prevailing across many markets. The 
Trump/Xi meeting has concluded and although there was great public goodwill on 
display, behind closed doors the Chinese seemed to have played more hardball. 
The two leaders agreed to meet this fall in Washington. With the cotton market 
technically bending lower, traders are seemingly in no mood to rally prices on 
a Friday. 

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
data. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 12,000 positions, lifting 
their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. The all-time bullish record stands at 
108,788 contracts.

   The current U.S. Drought Monitor showed a fractional improvement in the 
current general drought gripping the Cotton Belt. The current reading is 97% 
drought; previous reading 87%. 

   The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 20-24) shows normal temperatures for Texas, 
but above-normal readings for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast. Rainwise, Texas 
shows much-above normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast indicate 
only slightly above-normal opportunities.

   Monday, USDA will issue its weekly Crop Progress report. Last week the 2026 
crop was reported at 29% planted compared to its five-year average of 228% 
complete.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 81.70 cents and 81.10 cents, with 
resistance around 84.25 cents and 86.15 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 25,407 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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