DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/12 07:17

   Cotton Market Lower as Traders Weigh Bearish WASDE Report

   The cotton market was lower overnight, as traders are re-focusing on 
Friday's bearish October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 
report. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was lower overnight, as traders are re-focusing on 
Friday's bearish October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 
report. This week, assessments will be made on the crop damage from Isaias and 
traders are gearing up for new inflation data.

   Last Friday, the CFTC updated its weekly Commitments of Traders' numbers. 
The report showed that the managed-money funds net sold some 10,700 positions, 
reducing their net bullish carry to 63,837 contracts.

   Due to the Columbus Day holiday, the weekly Crop Progress report will be 
released Tuesday, Oct. 13. It is doubtful that any assessment damage stemming 
from Hurricane Isaias will be documented. Various social media postings 
suggested there was widespread damage to the Alabama cotton crop in particular.

   Sunday afternoon, President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had 
agreed to an energy ceasefire. Recently, the countries have attacked each 
other's energy infrastructure, driving global fuel prices higher. However, 
there is no confirmation of such an agreement. Trump's statement was posted on 
Truth Social. A truce between Ukraine and Russia could help alleviate the oil 
and gas crunch ahead of winter.

   This week, traders will see new CPI inflation numbers on Wednesday, while a 
fresh PPI report will be out on Thursday. Their results could influence the 
Federal Reserve in its deliberations whether to raise interest rates or not. 
The central bank meets during the last week of October. Currently, the odds of 
an increase in the Fed funds rate stand at 18%.

   For Monday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 79.10 cents and 
78.80 cents, with resistance around 81.90 cents and 82.91 cents. Monday 
morning's estimated volume is 15,305 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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