DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/03 07:20

   December Cotton Hits New Harvest Low Amid Harvest Pressure and Midterms

   December cotton posted a new harvest low overnight, while the March contract 
and forward months did not.


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   December cotton posted a new harvest low overnight, while the March contract 
and forward months did not. The market remains in the thick of harvest, while 
the nation and indeed the world, await the outcome of Tuesday's U.S. midterm 
elections.

   Monday afternoon, USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report. Its data 
showed that 63% of the U.S. cotton crop had been harvested as of Nov. 1, up 
from 52% the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 54%. Texas was 
61% harvested versus its five-year average of 46%, while Georgia, Arkansas, 
Mississippi, and Missouri are all ahead of their average paces.

   Crude oil has snapped higher overnight, as the U.S. attacked a Qeshm Island 
in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been using this location for launching 
attacks on commercial shipping.

   The U.S. dollar is off Tuesday as investors weigh uncertainty over U.S.-Iran 
tensions and U.S. midterm elections. Analysts suggest that Democrats could 
retake the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains 
uncertain.

   This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, USDA will issue its weekly export sales. 
Highlights from the previous week's data showed combined seasonal sales had 
reached 254,833 bales versus the prior 199,630 bales. China was a major 
participant. Cumulative sales have reached 49% of USDA's forecast versus a 
five-year average of 57%.

   On Friday, traders will see a new jobs report followed by a new update from 
the CFTC. Those estimates will be out Wednesday.

   For Tuesday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 76.50 cents and 
75.90 cents, with resistance around 78.45 cents and 79.10 cents. Tuesday 
morning's estimated volume is 17,880 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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